“I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It’s a quick way to look like an idiot.”
~Warren Ellis, British author
When did mainstream mass media stop reporting what actually happened (news) and start spending all their time predicting what might happen?
Prior to the election I was pretty immersed in podcasts and news reports. Somehow in the infinite wisdom of the magical algorithm, podcasts and YouTube channels from various astrologers started popping into my feed, playing automatically because I keep forgetting to adjust my app preferences.
Interestingly, there was little difference between what the astrologers were saying and what the news media was saying. They were all prognosticating — foretelling or prophesying future events based on whatever signs they saw in the stars and planets (astrologers) or in the polls (media).
Who ended up being right and who ended up being wrong by Wednesday was a mixed bag, but it was clear they were all just making semi-educated guesses. And that got me thinking.
Trust in the media is at an all time low and it’s been that way for most of my adult life. Why is that? I remember the nightly news programs on TV when I was a kid. In 30 minutes they reported on the day’s events, things that had already happened, and then signed off for the night. The anchorman might give a few minutes of commentary, but it was clearly labeled as commentary and it was about something that had already happened and been reported, not something that might happen in the future.
You didn’t question the veracity of what was on the news because, again, it had already happened. The only question was if the weatherman’s forecast would be right or wrong the next day. We all knew the weather forecast was iffy… even the weatherman freely admitted he might be wrong.
Now, it’s more likely for the weather forecast to be accurate, thanks to improved technology, and the news “forecast” to be a wild guess provided by paid pundits giving their opinions and calling it “news.”
By definition, news is “a report of recent events.” It’s what was said in a meeting, or a report from a court trial or a crime scene, or a story about something noteworthy somone has accomplished.
Much of what we’re calling “news” now — whether it’s a podcast or a 24-hour cable news channel or the garbage proliferating on social media — is not news, it’s opinion, it’s conjecture, it’s speculation, it’s prophesying in the name of politics.
According to Aristotle, nature abhors a vacuum. The creation of information channels that demand 24-7 fresh content created a vacuum, and that vacuum is being met with the media equivalent of Madame Zora’s crystal ball fortune-telling.
